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Determinants of Office Property Value in China’s Emerging Markets
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Title:  Determinants of Office Property Value in China’s Emerging Markets
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Author: Gangzhi    Fan
co-Authors:  Rong-Rong REN
Organization:  西南财经大学
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Conference presentation:  CES 2008 Annual Conference: New Phase of China's Economic Development
Abstract:  Determinants of Office Property Value in China’s Emerging Markets
Rong-Rong REN (Tsinghua University) rrr04@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
Gang-Zhi FAN (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics) gzfan@swufe.edu.cn

Office property value is a main concern for investment and finance decisions of office buildings. The majority of the previous office literature only focused on the office building markets in developed countries. The performance of the emerging office markets, especially the Chinese emerging markets, has still been little investigated. Our study has therefore attempted to look at the determinants of office property values in the emerging Chinese major office markets. Based on the sample covering 35 major cities in China, we have carried out panel data regression analyses. Our modeling results confirm the existing findings in developed countries that demand shocks are the main driven forces for the growth of office property value, and provide evidence that labor productivity is more critical than the output variables when examining demand for office space. Our findings also reveal that the appreciation potential of office property value will be increasing large with the development of China’s tertiary industry. Moreover, it is shown that the effect of supply shocks on office property value is positive. This is an interesting result that is different from the existing findings in the commercial real estate literature. The findings provide interesting insight into the office property value determination and investment decisions in the emerging markets.
Full-text paper link:  Determinants_of_office_property_value_in_China_emerging_markets (Conference Version).pdf
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